What is theoretical probability?

Theoretical probability focuses on the likelihood of an event occurring based on a logical analysis of the situation rather than relying on empirical evidence or historical data. It is calculated by considering all possible outcomes of a given scenario and determining the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes.

In this context, analyzing a situation involves systematically examining all potential results to forecast how likely a specific outcome is to occur. This approach is distinct from calculating probability based on actual occurrences or experiments, which relies on observed data rather than theoretical understanding. For example, when tossing a fair coin, the theoretical probability of landing on heads is determined by recognizing there are two possible outcomes (heads or tails), leading to a probability of 1 out of 2, or 50%.

The other choices touch on different aspects of probability that do not reflect the theoretical approach. For instance, one option mentions probability based on past events, which aligns more closely with empirical or experimental probability rather than theoretical principles. Another choice relates to experimentally derived probability, which involves observing outcomes through experiments rather than calculating based on possible outcomes. Lastly, the mention of conjecture does not provide a solid foundation for probability, as conjecture lacks the systematic analysis that underpins theoretical probability.